The Most Surprising (Both Good and Bad)
MLB Teams to Start off the 2024 Season

With two months of the 2024 MLB season underway, enough time has passed for assessments can be made about the performance of different teams. For many, the initial expectations have been met. But there are some teams that are surprising fans in a good way… and some in a bad way.

Brewers fans entered the season cautiously optimistic. Going into the season without two all-star pitchers in Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes (traded) and reliever Devin Williams (out with two stress fractures in his back) seemed to signal the team was destined to lose, or at least rebuild. However, the Brew Crew adopted a “next man up” mentality.
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Catcher William Contreras ranks fifth in RBI (runs batted in), fourth in hits, and 13^th in OPS+ (On-base Plus Slugging Plus). Twenty-year-old rookie Jackson Chourio is fifth in home runs (HR) and twelfth in RBI amongst rookies. Not to mention, he is one of four players in MLB history to record five or more HR and five or more SB in their first 39 career games at 20-years or younger.

Another rookie, reliever Bryan Hudson is going toe-to-toe with MLB veterans. He’s top-three in ERA, seventh in wins above replacement (WAR), and has a left on base percentage (LOB%) at 97.1 per cent across 30 innings.

As of the time of this article, the run differential of runs scored – runs allowed is 728-647 — a difference of 81 runs. Fox Sports projected Milwaukee to be third-worst in the National League, Sporting News and The New York Times ranked them fourth and second respectively in the division.

The Brewers are in fourth place in the National League (NL) with a 98.8 per cent chance of making the playoffs and a 12 per cent chance of winning the WorldSeries (via Baseball Reference).

What happened?
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Arguably baseball’s best reliever in Edwin Diaz returns from a leg injury…only to be sidelined with shoulder impingement. The 2022 Reliever of the Year went from a 1.31 ERA and nine errors across 62 innings, to a 5.40 ERA, 12 errors and the worst home run percentage of his career.

Another usually reliable player is all-star first baseman Pete Alonso. However, he went from a 2.9 WAR in 2023, to just 0.4 a year later. For a notorious power swinger, the first basemen has a slash line of .235 batting average (AVG), .311 on-base percentage (OBP), .460 slugging percentage (SLG) (all career lows).

There’s speculation the two-time Home Run Derby Champ could be traded at the deadline. Not because this slump, but because the Mets could sell his impressive resume as leverage for improving pitching rotation.

Diaz is hurt, Kodai Senga is out, and Jake Diekman is busy throwing the dugout’s water cooler. Also, pitcher Jorge Lopez was cut after throwing his glove into the stands and reportedly saying “he’s on the worst team in the MLB”.  

It’s bad enough the Mets are first in highest total payroll for 2024 and oldest age on average. But to make matters worse, the Mets’ owner Steve Cohen responded to a since deleted a tweet saying “All in the future, not much we can do until trade deadline.”  

The Mets are the most disappointing MLB team right now, highlighted by Jeff McNeil’s frustration during the Dodgers game and a player’s only meeting to get some sort of semblance.

The entire American League (AL) Central could qualify as a good surprise — minus the White Sox. But out of all the teams, the Royals performing this well so far is the most impressive.

Four games back from first in AL Central, 21-9 at home and 12-8 against some tough divisional opponents. The team improved in the runners left in scoring position stat from last year — going from 3.40 players per game to 3.15.

The 34-year old catcher Salvador Perez has shown there’s still juice left in the tank, with a slash line of .321 average (AVG)/.385 OPS/.531 slugging (SLG).

On the opposite end of the age spectrum, 23-year old superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. is second in the AL for batting average (behind teammate Perez),first in runs and hits, and second in stolen bases (SB).

Additionally, the one-two punch of pitchers Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans have been great. In a combined 145 innings pitched (as of May 31) they have a 13-5 record (Lugo has the most wins in the AL), a 2.54 ERA, and 122 strikeouts (Ragans is third in the AL for strikeouts).

Witt Jr. is a good analogy for the Royals because they aren’t the best at anything… but they are really good at everything.  

A hangover slump the year after making it all the way to the World Series is common. However, with the strong postseason run last year, it’s shocking that the Arizona Diamondbacks are last in the NL West Division.  

Let’s start with All-MLB First-Team pitcher Zac Gallen. Last year, out of the 20 best pitchers in ERA, Gallen played the most games and secured the 16^th best ERA. Moreover, Gallen was top six in strikeouts and second in wins.  However, Gallen ranks 17^th in ERA and that’s just in NL. The curveballs that Gallen relies on isn’t connecting as well as last year, leading to an increase in his walks-per-innings-pitched (WHIP).

The problem with the Diamondbacks is the things the team did well in last year's playoffs, haven't been translating this year.

Starting off with pitching, the Snakes have a hard time striking out opposing batters. There are three different starting pitchers with an ERA of five-plus and the next best pitcher Brandon Pfaadt, is 35^th in quality starts percentage (three or less runs in six or more innings).

In terms of the batting side, last year’s Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll was an MVP candidate, with .285 AVG, 25 HRs and 54 stolen bases (SB) (the first rookie in MLB history to do so). Shockingly, the 23-year-old might be the most disappointing player in baseball right now, with a .194 AVG, two home runs, and nine stolen bases. If it wasn't for the breakout season a year prior, many Diamondback fans would be on the verge of calling Carroll a bust.

Apart from soon-to-be all-star second basemen Ketel Marte, there are only two guys on the team with an OPS above .750.

The D-backs are a hard team to assess this year because the stats are pretty close to last year’s. Perhaps this season is shining a spotlight on the over performance of the Snakes in the postseason.

But out of all the teams struggling, the Diamondbacks seem most likely to turn it around. With a record of 11-9 against division rivals like the loaded Dodgers, no major assets lost in the offseason, and the average age of the roster being younger than San Diego or the Dodgers, the Diamondbacks should be better overtime.  

Many baseball fans expected the Phillies to be good... but certainly not THIS good.

Canadian General Manager Rob Thomson took over managerial duties in 2022, and took the team to a World Series in 2022, and a NL Championship Series in 2023. With a winning percentage of .609 between regular season and playoffs, it’s easy to see why Thomson was extended until 2025.

The best example of Thomson’s presence is Bryce Harper. After spending 11 seasons as an outfielder, Harper moved post-Tommy John surgery to first base. The reason Thompson decided to change Harper’s position was to prevent overuse of the throwing arm, in which the UCL received surgery. In what could have been a questionable decision, Harper went from a Silver Slugger outfielder, to a Silver Slugger at first base. According to ESPN, Harper is tied for ninth in home runs, tied for seventh in RBI, and eighth in OPS (.942).

Another example is the utilization of pitcher Aaron Nola. After signing a long-term contract, the 30-year old struggled in the home opener against the Atlanta Braves, giving up six earned up on four innings pitched. To keep his confidence in-tact, Nola was selected to start against sub .500 teams like Washington, St. Louis, Colorado, and Chicago. With four more games played in the month of April than the single game in March, Nola had just two more errors and nine more hits.

It could have been easy to consider trading pitcher Ranger Suarez after a rough year in 2023. However, Thomson was patient and continued to give Suarez ample opportunities to redeem himself. This led to Suarez being ranked in the top seven across wins, strikeouts, WHIP, and ERA across 72 innings pitched, putting him neck-and-neck with Shota Imanaga for the 2024 NL Cy Young award.

If the Phillies can improve with fielding (specifically in the outfield), they will likely be competing in another World Series.

The seat is quite hot for both GM John Schneider and President Ross Atkins. After an embarrassing sweep against the Marlins in back-to-back postseasons, the Blue Jays have disappointed year-in and year-out.

The team has good plate discipline as they are currently sixth in walks, and near the bottom half of the league for players caught stealing. The talent is there, which is why this season is so frustrating for the fans.

George Springer is second all-time in career leadoff home runs and Vladmir Guerrero Jr. was tied for the most Home Runs in 2021, along with being the 2023 Home Run Derby champion. Yet, as of May 31, Springer’s batting average went from .256 a year prior to just .196. For Guerrero Jr. the slugging dropped and batting average is expected to drop throughout the season.

It’s important to note the Jays have played the Rockies three times and the White Sox five times so those stats are inflated (those two clubs are so bad, they should be considered glorified triple a teams).

If you combined the hard hit percentage of the top eight players in the Blue Jays lineup, the sum is 35.8 per cent of the player’s swinging the bat at 75 mph+. Why does this matter? The Rogers Centre allows balls to travel an extra foot on average this season. If the Blue Jays could just hit the ball 328 feet to the left or to the right, the team would win more games.

Pitcher Erik Swanson was so bad with a nearly 10 ERA, he was sent down to the triple a team for re-assessment. Another pitcher struggling is Bowden Francis with 14 errors in 14 innings pitched and a WHIP of 1.70.

When you get shutout by the Chicago White Sox 5-0 and booed by your own fanbase there is a serious problem at hand. Apart from the Mets, the Blue Jays are the most disappointing team in baseball so far this year.