What's in Store for the Buffalo Bills?

For the 2024-25 season, the four-time Pro Bowl receiver Stefon Diggs will be joining the HoustonTexans via trade from the Buffalo Bills. This was just one multiple veteran Bills players who were either released or left in this year’s free agency.

Now the direction the franchise is unclear and has football fans wondering how the Bills will address the following problems the team will face this season?
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Rather than looking at things from a negative perspective, I will address three problems the Bills will face and accompany those with proposed solutions to turn the team around.  

For the 2024-25 season, the four-time Pro Bowl receiver Stefon Diggs will be joining the Houston Texans via trade from the Buffalo Bills.

After losing Diggs and fellow receiver Gabriel Davis, the Bills signed free agent receiver Curtis Samuel. According to Draft Sharks, the new WR2 is a “very high risk injury player”, with a 82% chance of injury for 2024 and a durability rating of 3.4/5. This is concerning considering Samuel is the oldest member of the receiving core. It’s hard to demonstrate veteran leadership on the field when you’re hardly on the field.

 A remaining go-to option for quarterback Josh Allen is tight end Dawson Knox. Knox missed five games last year with a right wrist injury, the same hand that had a broken bone two years prior. Since Diggs and Davis have now moved on to other teams, Allen needs to rely on Knox and Samuel now more than ever. 

Now let’s talk about the defense.

Linebacker Matt Milano played five games last year with an Achilles tear. Milano’s absence affects the team as he was 13^th in total tackles and tied for third in interceptions. Impressive, considering Milano played 12 less games than some of the other defensive players. 

Back in November 2022, linebacker Von Miller had a Knee Meniscus Tear and a Grade 3 ACL Tear. Miller went from 21 total tackles in 2022, to three total tackles in 12 games a year later.  

Moreover, defensive lineman DaQuan Jones was sidelined for 10 games after tearing his pectoral muscle.Jones was relied upon to stop the run game and capable of taking on two defenders at the same time.

Finally, the Bills total tackle leader linebacker Terrel Bernard is going into 2024 listed as questionable with an ankle injury.
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Simply put, the offense needs to stay healthy to get the first downs, so that the defense can help the team stay competitive on a weekly basis.

Almost 40 per cent of Allen’s passes last year went to either Diggs or Davis, and racked up 45 per cent of Allen’s passing yards for the entire season. If defenses blitzed, Allen could dump it off to running back James Cook. Last season, Cook made his first Pro Bowl averaging 10 yards per reception and four receiving touchdowns. However, with Diggs and Davis pushing defenders downfield, Cook is more likely to get blitzed from the outside, forcing the run game inside.  

The downgraded receiving core will have a hard time creating separation, which will force the offense to run the ball more frequently. Defensive schemes are more likely to prioritize blitzing the gaps to stop Allen and Cook in the backfield. 

Losing two of his most reliable weapons in the offseason in addition to competing against division rival Jets (2^nd best in passing yards allowed last year) will make Allen’s job harder. 

On the other side of the ball, Pro Bowl cornerbacks Tre’davius White and Jordan Poyer are gone. Not to mention safety Micah Hyde is still a free agent, so his future with the Bills is to be determined. Losing linebacker Tyrel Dodson who was 4^th in total tackles to the Seahawks will hurt the run game.


As for division rivals with receivers like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Garrett Wilson, the Bills secondary will have their work cut out for them. The defensive secondary is completely vulnerable, the linebacker rotation is recovering from injuries, and the defensive line will be gassed staying on the field most of the time. 

At $14 million per year, Knox is the highest paid tight end. Although reliable when healthy, Knox has never had 50 or more catches in a single season. Yes, the Bills unloaded the $27.8 million cap hit of Diggs, but the Bills now have a dead cap of $31million from Diggs alone.  

Changes need to be made if the Bills want to make it to the AFC Championship for years to come. Three consecutive years of failing to reach the AFC Championship. It’s frustrating because there are many talented athletes on the team. But it’s hard to forget games like the 13 second heartbreaker against the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs back in 2021.  

From now until 2026, thefollowing are the salary increases for three of the highest paid Bills: Allen:$30 million -$63 million, Miller: $15 million - $26 million, Milano: $12million - $16 million. Keep in mind, in 2026 Cook becomes an unrestricted free agent. The Bills have over $3 million in 2024 salary cap space and over $50 million in dead money according to Over the Cap. Allen’s signing bonus alone is over $27 million until 2027.

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Take a page out of the Houston Texans textbook and trade valuable assets for draft picks. So who will lands on the cutting room floor? Miller, Milano, Knox, Allen, and even head coach SeanMcDermott. Media reporters would call this decision “blasphemous” and“unnecessary”. But that’s to be expected… and can actually work in favour of the Bills. 

Bills Mafia would be shocked and probably outraged if the team traded away all the aforementioned — including most notably Allen. But I have a reason for all this. After 2025, Allen, along with Milano and Miller don’t have any guaranteed money owed by the Bills. Additionally, Jones and Knox have a guaranteed salary of $2.2 million and $4.5 million respectively.
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Allen would need to be included in a trade because with Miller’s injury history and Knox not being unpredictable health-wise. Realistically, the Bills could trade all three guys away in a trade package to a bottom-feeder like Carolina in exchange for a third-round pick. General managers would think they’re getting steals for these players and sway the general public in their favour. In reality, the Bills would be making salary cap space while rebuilding the team with healthy players.  

As for McDermott, he was responsible for hiring offensive coordinator Brian Daboll who in turn created Allen into the superstar quarterback he is today. McDermott is a good coach with a 64% winning record over the course of 7 years and coached in 11 playoff games.He has experience as defensive coordinator and ever since 2020, his lowest win-loss percentage was the 7^th best out of the 32 teams.

If an un-retired Sean Payton trade cost the Broncos a 2023 first-round pick and a 2024 second-round pick, McDermott could get the same, if not more. Include the former All-Pro linebacker Milano in the deal and I could see a team who’ll be drafting a quarterback (such as Minnesota) and theBills could pick up two first round picks.

This one is easier said than done. The truth is I’m not sure who would be a great coach in either scenario. But the most productive offensive in recent memory for Buffalo was the 2020 one-two combo of Daboll and McDermott.

Reaching the AFC Championship with a 13-3 regular season record and a 2-1 playoff record, the team ranked fourth best in simple rating system (a stat that takes into account the strength of the team’s schedule and average point differential).
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Ever since Daboll left to become head coach of the Giants, the Bills haven’t clicked quite as well as they did back in 2020. If the Bills want to beat the likes of Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes come playoff time, it starts with coaching.

A common theme with Bengals offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher, Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, and Daboll: They had experience coaching quarterbacks prior to promotion, prior experience assisting the production of the entire offense, and each contributed to drafting cornerstone talents for their respected franchises (Pitcher with Burrow, Johnson with Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Daboll with Allen). These three played a pivotal role in changing the competitive nature of their teams, and I think following this trend when selecting the next offensive coordinator would be wise for the Bills.

As for the next head coach, it’s typically someone with experience as either an offensive or defensive coordinator. For example, in 2022, Demeco Ryans went from being defensive coordinator for the 49ers to Houston’s head coach a year later. Under Ryans’ leadership the Texans went from 3-13-1 to a 10-5 playoff team. In my opinion, the key for the Bills is to find a young, talented offensive coordinator proven and hungry to take the next step. The days of old school defensive-minded coaches no longer have the relevancy they once did — just ask Bill Belichick. Selecting a strong offensive coordinator with a lot of potential can persuade the locker room to buy into the rebuild.

I hate the word “tank” because it’s a sports colloquial for surrender. It wasn’t easy to type that the Bills should tank, but nothing is worse for a franchise to simply be mediocre. But with Allen at the helm solely rushing for over 500 yards and 15 touchdowns, the Bills will still be some what competitive.   

It might sound good to the casual fan that the Bills have a first round pick in the 2024 draft. But when it’s the 28^th overall pick and many of the elite specialty players will be gone it becomes less enticing. The main priority for the Bills should be drafting an agile cornerback who can keep up with the quick-cutting route runners of the AFC East.  

What I would do as the Bills General Manager: Trade the 2024 first round pick to a team that needs a lot of pieces. The Bills have the ability to wipe the slate clean, have a terrible season and land a top 10 pick. By the time 2025 rolls around, Buffalo have a good shot of selecting someone like Colorado’s cornerback Travis Hunter.

The last time the Bills had a pick in the top 10 was in 2019 selecting two-time Consensus All-American defensive tackle Ed Oliver. Additionally, the last time the Bills had a top five pick was back in 2014 selecting Sammy Watkins (but could have drafted Khalil Mack, Odell Beckham Jr., or Mike Evans).